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Bonds & Fixed Income

26 cards · Stock Market & Investing · answer each one, then read the explanation. Your score tallies below. Related guides: Yield to call vs yield to maturity, worked example, Bond duration & convexity, a full worked example.

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Stock Market & Investing · Bonds & Fixed Income · Card 001/026 easy

A bond with a face value of $1,000 pays a fixed coupon of 5% annually. If market interest rates rise from 5% to 7%, what happens to the bond's market price and why?

  1. The bond's price falls to exactly $0, because a bond paying below the current market rate becomes worthless to all investors
  2. The bond's price rises above $1,000, because investors prefer the safety of owning a bond that was issued when rates were lower
  3. The bond's price falls below $1,000, because newly issued bonds now offer 7% coupons, making the existing 5% coupon less attractive — investors will only buy the older bond at a discount that compensates for the lower coupon
  4. The bond's price stays at $1,000, because the coupon rate is fixed and contractually guaranteed regardless of what happens in the broader market
Stock Market & Investing · Bonds & Fixed Income · Card 002/026 medium

What does a bond's yield to maturity (YTM) represent, and how does it differ from the bond's coupon rate?

  1. YTM and coupon rate are identical for all bonds trading in the secondary market; the distinction only exists for bonds held from original issuance to maturity
  2. YTM is the total annualised return an investor will earn if they buy the bond at its current market price and hold it to maturity, assuming all coupons are reinvested at the YTM rate — it accounts for the purchase price, coupon payments, and the return of face value, while the coupon rate is simply the fixed annual interest payment expressed as a percentage of the bond's face value
  3. YTM is the annual coupon payment divided by the bond's current market price, making it the same as the current yield but expressed on a different time basis
  4. YTM measures only the capital gain or loss on the bond and excludes coupon income entirely, while the coupon rate captures the income component
Stock Market & Investing · Bonds & Fixed Income · Card 003/026 medium

An investor must choose between two bonds with identical credit quality and maturity dates: Bond X has a duration of 3 years and Bond Y has a duration of 8 years. If interest rates are expected to rise significantly, which bond carries more price risk and why?

  1. Bond X carries more price risk, because shorter-duration bonds are more volatile since their cash flows are received sooner and are therefore more affected by rate changes
  2. Neither bond carries price risk because both have fixed coupon payments that are contractually guaranteed regardless of interest rate movements
  3. Both bonds carry identical price risk because they have the same credit quality and maturity date, which are the only factors that determine bond price sensitivity
  4. Bond Y carries more price risk, because duration measures a bond's sensitivity to interest rate changes — a higher duration means the bond's price will fall more for a given increase in rates
Stock Market & Investing · Bonds & Fixed Income · Card 004/026 easy

Interest rate risk and credit (default) risk are two distinct risks that affect bond investors. Which statement correctly distinguishes them?

  1. Credit risk describes the risk that a bond's market price will fall as market interest rates rise, while interest rate risk describes the risk that the issuer will fail to make its promised interest or principal payments
  2. Interest rate risk is the risk that a bond's market price will change as prevailing market interest rates move, while credit risk is the risk that the issuer defaults on its promised interest or principal payments; a bond can carry heavy exposure to one of these risks with almost none of the other
  3. Both risks measure the same underlying exposure, because a rise in market interest rates always signals that the issuer's ability to repay its debt is deteriorating
  4. Interest rate risk applies only to bonds issued by national governments, while credit risk applies only to bonds issued by corporations, since governments cannot default and corporations are unaffected by market rate movements
Stock Market & Investing · Bonds & Fixed Income · Card 005/026 easy

A zero-coupon bond makes no periodic interest payments to the bondholder during its term. How does an investor who holds one to maturity actually earn a return?

  1. The bond pays a single large coupon payment exactly halfway through its term instead of the usual periodic schedule, and that one payment is the investor's entire return
  2. The issuer pays a variable amount each year tied to its own stock price performance, replacing the fixed coupon that a standard bond would pay
  3. The investor earns no return at all unless the bond is resold before maturity, at a price set purely by speculative demand with no relationship to face value
  4. The bond is issued and typically trades at a price below its face value, and the investor's return comes entirely from that built-in discount — the difference between the discounted purchase price and the full face value repaid at maturity
Stock Market & Investing · Bonds & Fixed Income · Card 006/026 easy

A bond has a fixed coupon rate of 4%. Comparing that coupon rate to the prevailing market interest rate for newly issued bonds of similar credit quality and maturity, under which condition will this bond trade at a premium (a market price above its face value)?

  1. When the prevailing market rate for comparable bonds is below the bond's 4% coupon, making its fixed payments more attractive than newly issued bonds, so investors bid its price above face value
  2. When the prevailing market rate for comparable bonds is above the bond's 4% coupon, since a higher market rate always pushes the price of an existing bond upward to match the new rate
  3. Only when the bond is issued directly by a national government, regardless of where its coupon rate sits relative to the current market rate
  4. Only during the bond's final year before maturity, when its market price is mechanically forced to converge upward toward a premium
Stock Market & Investing · Bonds & Fixed Income · Card 007/026 easy

A bond investor plans to reinvest each coupon payment as it's received. If market interest rates fall significantly after the bond is purchased, which risk does this reinvestment plan expose the investor to, and how does that risk differ from the interest-rate risk affecting the bond's own market price?

  1. The same interest-rate risk that affects the bond's price, since a falling market rate always causes both the bond's price and its coupon payments to decline by the same proportion
  2. Credit risk, because falling market rates are typically a sign that the issuer's financial condition is weakening and less able to support future payments
  3. Reinvestment risk — the risk that future coupon payments (and, at maturity, the returned principal) will have to be reinvested at the now-lower prevailing rate, reducing the investor's overall realized return; this is distinct from price risk, which concerns the bond's own market value moving in the opposite direction as rates fall
  4. Currency risk, because a decline in domestic interest rates is assumed to automatically weaken the currency the coupon payments are denominated in
Stock Market & Investing · Bonds & Fixed Income · Card 008/026 easy

Independent credit rating agencies assign ratings to bonds based on the issuer's perceived ability to meet its debt obligations. What is the fundamental distinction between an 'investment-grade' bond and a 'speculative-grade' (high-yield, or 'junk') bond, and why do speculative-grade bonds typically offer higher yields?

  1. Investment-grade bonds are always shorter-term than speculative-grade bonds, and the higher yield on speculative-grade bonds simply compensates investors for tying up their money over a longer horizon
  2. The distinction reflects the rating agencies' assessment of default risk: investment-grade issuers are judged to have a stronger capacity to meet their obligations, while speculative-grade issuers are judged to carry meaningfully higher default risk, and the higher yield compensates investors for bearing that additional risk
  3. Credit ratings measure only the size of a bond's coupon payment, so a 'speculative-grade' label simply means the bond happens to pay a larger coupon in dollar terms
  4. The distinction is set entirely by whether the bond is traded on a public exchange or privately between institutions, unrelated to the issuer's financial condition
Stock Market & Investing · Bonds & Fixed Income · Card 009/026 medium

A corporate bond includes a call provision, giving the issuer the right to redeem it before maturity at a specified call price. Under what circumstance is the issuer most likely to exercise this call, and what risk does that create for the bondholder?

  1. The issuer is most likely to call the bond after market interest rates have fallen well below the bond's coupon rate, since it can then refinance by issuing new debt at the lower rate; this leaves the bondholder holding cash that must now be reinvested at the new, lower prevailing rates
  2. The issuer is most likely to call the bond after market interest rates have risen well above the bond's coupon rate, since the issuer benefits from locking bondholders into a below-market payment for as long as possible
  3. The decision to call is unrelated to interest rates and instead depends solely on the issuer's stock price reaching a predetermined threshold
  4. Calling a bond exposes the bondholder to the same type of risk as a missed coupon payment, since both events represent the issuer failing to honor the original terms of the bond
Stock Market & Investing · Bonds & Fixed Income · Card 010/026 medium

Under a 'normal' yield curve, yields on longer-maturity bonds of the same credit quality are higher than yields on shorter-maturity bonds, compensating investors for tying up their money longer and for greater uncertainty further into the future. What does an 'inverted' yield curve describe, and why has it historically drawn close attention from economists and investors?

  1. An inverted yield curve describes long-maturity yields rising even further above short-maturity yields than usual, representing an extreme version of the normal pattern rather than a genuinely different shape
  2. An inverted yield curve is simply the same set of yields as a normal curve, plotted on a reversed axis for presentation purposes, with no actual difference in the ordering of the yields themselves
  3. An inverted yield curve occurs only within municipal bond markets and has no equivalent concept in the market for government or corporate bonds
  4. An inverted yield curve describes the less common situation where short-maturity yields exceed longer-maturity yields; historically, in the United States, an inverted Treasury yield curve has preceded most recessions by a lag of many months to roughly two years, which is why it has been treated as a closely watched, though imperfect, historical signal
Stock Market & Investing · Bonds & Fixed Income · Card 011/026 medium

In the United States, interest income from most municipal bonds (issued by state and local governments) receives distinct federal tax treatment compared to interest income from corporate bonds. What is that treatment, and why does it matter when comparing the stated yields of the two bond types?

  1. Interest from municipal bonds is fully taxable at the federal level in exactly the same way as corporate bond interest, so there is no meaningful tax difference to account for when comparing their yields
  2. Interest from municipal bonds is entirely exempt from both federal and every state's income tax for every investor, regardless of which state issued the bond or where the investor lives
  3. Interest from most municipal bonds is generally excluded from federal taxable income, which is why municipal bonds typically carry lower stated yields than comparably rated corporate bonds; investors calculate a 'tax-equivalent yield' to compare the two fairly, since a municipal bond's after-tax return can exceed a higher-stated corporate yield once the corporate bond's taxable interest is accounted for
  4. The federal tax exemption applies to any capital gain earned from selling a municipal bond before maturity, but the periodic interest payments themselves remain fully taxable at the federal level
Stock Market & Investing · Bonds & Fixed Income · Card 012/026 hard

Duration provides a linear approximation of how much a bond's price will change for a given change in interest rates. For a large change in rates, this linear approximation becomes increasingly inaccurate, because the true relationship between bond prices and yields is curved rather than a straight line. What does 'convexity' measure in this context, and what does it imply about duration-only price estimates?

  1. Convexity measures the trend in an issuer's credit rating over time, and it implies that duration-only estimates ignore the issuer's changing ability to repay its debt
  2. Convexity measures the curvature of the price-yield relationship — essentially, the rate at which duration itself changes as yields change — and because that curve bows in a way that favors the bondholder for most conventional bonds, duration-only estimates tend to understate the actual price increase when yields fall and overstate the actual price decline when yields rise; a convexity adjustment corrects for this
  3. Convexity is simply another name for duration, describing the exact same sensitivity measure using a different unit of measurement
  4. Convexity only has meaning for zero-coupon bonds and is entirely irrelevant to bonds that pay regular coupons
Stock Market & Investing · Bonds & Fixed Income · Card 013/026 hard

A corporate bond and a government (Treasury) bond of the same maturity are compared, and the corporate bond offers a higher yield. What does this yield difference (the 'credit spread') primarily compensate the investor for, and why is the Treasury yield typically treated as the risk-free benchmark in this comparison?

  1. The credit spread primarily compensates the investor for taking on the corporate issuer's default (credit) risk; the domestic government bond is treated as the benchmark because it carries negligible default risk domestically, backed by the government's taxing and currency-issuing power, so a wider spread signals the market is demanding more compensation for additional default risk
  2. The credit spread exists purely to compensate for currency risk, since the two bonds are assumed to be denominated in different currencies whenever a spread is observed
  3. The credit spread reflects only a difference in how frequently each bond pays coupons, since more frequent coupon payments mechanically require a lower stated yield
  4. The credit spread exists because corporate bonds always have shorter maturities than government bonds of comparable structure, so the spread is simply a maturity premium rather than a credit-related premium
Stock Market & Investing · Bonds & Fixed Income · Card 014/026 medium

A fixed-income analyst calculates a bond's Macaulay duration as 7.2 years, with a yield to maturity of 6% compounded semiannually. Which statement correctly describes how modified duration relates to this Macaulay duration figure, and what modified duration is actually used for?

  1. Modified duration equals Macaulay duration divided by one plus the yield per compounding period (here, one plus half of the 6% annual yield), and it approximates the percentage change in the bond's price for a given change in yield — a different measure from Macaulay duration, which instead measures the weighted-average time, in years, until the bondholder receives the bond's cash flows
  2. Macaulay duration and modified duration are identical in both formula and meaning; the two names simply reflect which textbook or curriculum introduced the term first, with no real difference between them
  3. Modified duration is calculated by multiplying Macaulay duration by the annual yield to maturity, and like Macaulay duration it measures the weighted-average time until the bond's principal is fully repaid
  4. Modified duration can only be applied to zero-coupon bonds, since coupon-paying bonds require effective duration instead to estimate how their price responds to a change in yield
Stock Market & Investing · Bonds & Fixed Income · Card 015/026 easy

A Treasury Inflation-Protected Security (TIPS) has a fixed coupon rate set at auction. Over the life of the bond, how does TIPS protect an investor's purchasing power against inflation, and what happens to its cash flows as the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rises?

  1. The coupon rate itself rises automatically whenever CPI-U rises, while the bond's principal stays fixed at its original face value for the entire life of the bond
  2. TIPS pay no periodic coupon at all; all inflation protection comes from a single lump-sum adjustment paid out only when the bond matures
  3. TIPS protection works by letting the investor redeem the bond early, without penalty, any time cumulative inflation since issuance exceeds the bond's fixed coupon rate
  4. The bond's principal is adjusted upward as CPI-U rises (and downward if CPI-U falls), and because each coupon payment is the fixed coupon rate applied to the current, inflation-adjusted principal, both the principal and the dollar coupon amount rise with inflation; at maturity the investor receives the greater of the inflation-adjusted principal or the original face value
Stock Market & Investing · Bonds & Fixed Income · Card 016/026 hard

Two competing theories attempt to explain why Treasury yield curves are typically upward-sloping. Under the pure expectations theory, a long-term bond's yield reflects only the market's expectations of future short-term rates, with no inherent bias toward any particular slope. How does the liquidity preference (liquidity premium) theory modify this explanation, and what does that imply about reading an upward-sloping curve purely as a rate forecast?

  1. Liquidity preference theory argues that investors prefer longer maturities because they are easier to trade and more liquid than short-term instruments, which pushes long-term yields below short-term yields
  2. Liquidity preference theory replaces expectations entirely, arguing that expected future short-term rates play no role whatsoever in determining any point on the yield curve
  3. Liquidity preference theory adds that investors require a premium, increasing with maturity, to compensate for the greater interest rate risk of holding longer-term bonds; because this premium layers on top of rate expectations, an upward-sloping curve can appear even when the market expects future short-term rates to stay flat or decline modestly, so the slope alone cannot be read as a pure forecast of rising rates
  4. Liquidity preference theory applies only to corporate bonds and has no bearing on the shape of the US Treasury yield curve, which pure expectations theory alone fully explains
Stock Market & Investing · Bonds & Fixed Income · Card 017/026 easy

A floating-rate note (FRN) pays a coupon equal to a reference rate (such as SOFR) plus a fixed spread, reset quarterly. A fixed-rate bond of the same five-year maturity, issued on the same day, pays a constant coupon set at issuance. If market interest rates rise sharply the day after both bonds are issued, how would you expect their prices to react differently, and why?

  1. The floating-rate note's price would stay close to par, because its coupon resets to the new, higher reference rate at the next quarterly reset date, keeping it competitive with newly issued debt; the fixed-rate bond's price would fall, because its coupon is locked in and becomes less attractive relative to newly issued bonds now offering higher coupons
  2. Both bonds' prices would fall by roughly the same amount, since interest rate risk depends only on time to maturity, and both bonds share the same five-year maturity regardless of how their coupons are structured
  3. The floating-rate note's price would fall further than the fixed-rate bond's, because resetting the coupon introduces uncertainty that the market penalizes more heavily than a bond with a known, fixed coupon
  4. Both bonds' prices would rise, since rising market interest rates always increase the present value of a bond's future cash flows regardless of whether its coupon is fixed or floating
Stock Market & Investing · Bonds & Fixed Income · Card 018/026 medium

A corporate bond with a semiannual coupon last paid interest two months ago, with its next coupon due in four months. A buyer and seller agree on a quoted (clean) price of 98.00. What additional amount does the buyer actually pay at settlement beyond this quoted price, and what is that total settlement amount called?

  1. The buyer pays exactly 98.00 with nothing added, because the clean price already includes any interest the seller is owed for the two months since the last coupon
  2. The buyer pays 98.00 minus a deduction representing the seller's forfeited claim to the two months of interest already earned, since that interest now belongs entirely to the buyer as the bond's new owner
  3. The buyer pays 98.00 plus the full amount of the next coupon payment due in four months, since the seller must be compensated upfront for the entire remaining coupon period
  4. The buyer pays 98.00 plus accrued interest — the portion of the upcoming coupon the seller has earned for the two months already elapsed since the last payment — and this total amount actually exchanged at settlement is called the dirty (or full) price; the quoted 98.00 is the clean price, which excludes this accrued interest
Stock Market & Investing · Bonds & Fixed Income · Card 019/026 easy

A corporate bond's indenture includes a sinking fund provision, requiring the issuer to retire a portion of the bond issue's principal at scheduled intervals before the final maturity date, often by purchasing and retiring bonds in the open market or through a lottery call to a randomly selected group of bondholders. From the perspective of a bondholder, what is the primary effect of this provision?

  1. It guarantees that every bondholder's bonds will be redeemed on the same date, eliminating any uncertainty about which bonds are retired early
  2. It increases the bond's exposure to credit risk, since the issuer sets aside cash that could otherwise be used to pay bondholders in default
  3. It reduces the risk that the issuer will be unable to repay the full principal at the final maturity date, because a portion of the debt is steadily retired beforehand -- in exchange, investors typically accept a somewhat lower yield than on an otherwise comparable bond without this feature
  4. It transfers responsibility for the bond's interest payments from the issuer to an independent sinking fund trustee for the remainder of the bond's life
Stock Market & Investing · Bonds & Fixed Income · Card 020/026 medium

A putable bond gives its holder the right, but not the obligation, to sell the bond back to the issuer at a predetermined price on specified dates before maturity. Compared to an otherwise identical plain-vanilla bond with no such feature, how does the putable feature affect the bond from the investor's perspective, and under what market condition is the investor most likely to exercise it?

  1. The put option protects the investor against a decline in the bond's market price, most valuable when market interest rates have risen well above the bond's coupon rate -- in exchange for this protection, the bond typically carries a lower yield (or higher price) than the equivalent plain bond
  2. The put option protects the issuer against having to refinance at a higher rate, most valuable to the issuer when market interest rates fall well below the bond's coupon rate
  3. The put option has no effect on the bond's price relative to a plain-vanilla bond, since it is the opposite of a call option and the two features exactly cancel out whenever both are present
  4. The put option obligates the investor to purchase additional bonds from the issuer at the original issue price whenever interest rates rise, in order to maintain the issuer's funding level
Stock Market & Investing · Bonds & Fixed Income · Card 021/026 medium

A residential mortgage-backed security (MBS) pools together thousands of individual home mortgages and passes the mortgage payments through to investors. Homeowners in the underlying pool have the right to repay their mortgages early, in full or in part, at any time -- most commonly by refinancing when mortgage rates fall. How does this prepayment feature affect an MBS investor, and how does that risk differ from a bond's ordinary credit (default) risk?

  1. Prepayment risk is identical to default risk, since in both cases the investor ultimately receives less total cash than originally promised by the mortgage pool
  2. Prepayment risk only matters when interest rates rise, since rising rates are what cause homeowners to refinance their mortgages into new loans
  3. Prepayment risk is eliminated entirely once a mortgage pool is securitized into an MBS, because the securitization process transfers all mortgage-related risk to the loan originator
  4. Prepayment risk is a timing risk, not a repayment risk: investors generally still receive their principal back, but a wave of refinancing when rates fall returns principal earlier than expected, forcing investors to reinvest it at the new, lower prevailing rates -- a different problem from a borrower failing to repay at all
Stock Market & Investing · Bonds & Fixed Income · Card 022/026 easy

A company issues two types of bonds on the same day: senior bonds and subordinated bonds. Both bonds have the same maturity date, but they rank differently in the event the company becomes insolvent. What does 'subordinated' mean in this context, and why do subordinated bonds typically offer a higher yield than the same issuer's senior bonds?

  1. Subordinated bonds are repaid before senior bonds in bankruptcy, which is why they typically pay a lower yield to compensate senior bondholders for taking on less protection
  2. Subordinated bondholders are paid only after senior bondholders have been repaid in full, so they bear a higher risk of loss if the company's assets are insufficient to cover all its debts -- the higher yield compensates investors for taking on that additional risk
  3. Subordinated bonds are backed by a specific pledged asset, while senior bonds are entirely unsecured, which is why subordinated bondholders demand a higher yield for giving up that asset-backed protection
  4. There is no practical difference in repayment priority between senior and subordinated bonds from the same issuer; the term 'subordinated' refers only to the order in which the bonds were originally issued, not to their claim priority in bankruptcy
Stock Market & Investing · Bonds & Fixed Income · Card 023/026 hard

A bond investor is comparing three portfolio construction strategies, all built to have the same overall portfolio duration: a 'bullet' strategy concentrates holdings around a single target maturity; a 'barbell' strategy holds only short-maturity and long-maturity bonds, with nothing in between; and a 'laddered' strategy spreads holdings evenly across many maturities from short to long. Even though all three can be built to share the same portfolio duration, which strategy is generally understood to have the highest convexity, and why does that distinction matter to the investor?

  1. The barbell strategy generally has the highest convexity among the three, because convexity rises with the dispersion of a portfolio's cash flows around its average maturity, and the barbell's two extreme maturities are the most dispersed -- higher convexity means the portfolio benefits more from a large rate move in either direction than a same-duration bullet or ladder would
  2. The bullet strategy generally has the highest convexity, because concentrating every bond around a single maturity date eliminates the reinvestment-rate uncertainty that otherwise reduces a portfolio's convexity
  3. The laddered strategy generally has the highest convexity, because spreading maturities evenly guarantees the smallest possible duration for any given level of yield, and duration and convexity always move in the same direction
  4. All three strategies always have identical convexity whenever their durations are matched, because duration alone fully determines a bond portfolio's price sensitivity to any size of interest rate change
Stock Market & Investing · Bonds & Fixed Income · Card 024/026 hard

A callable corporate bond was issued with a 7% coupon and is first callable in three years at a price of 102. Market interest rates have since fallen well below 7%, and the bond now trades at a premium price of 108, above its call price. An investor evaluating this bond calculates both its yield to maturity (YTM, assuming it is held to its final maturity date) and its yield to call (YTC, assuming it is redeemed at the first call date). Which of the following correctly describes the relationship between these two figures and why?

  1. YTC will be higher than YTM, because the call price of 102 is itself higher than the bond's original face value of 100, which mechanically raises any yield calculation that assumes redemption at that price
  2. YTM and YTC must always be mathematically identical for any bond, since both are simply the bond's current coupon rate expressed as a yield
  3. YTC will be lower than YTM in this case, because the bond trades at a premium above its call price, which signals that the issuer is likely to call the bond early -- once called, the investor loses the remaining years of above-market coupon payments that the YTM calculation otherwise assumes they would keep collecting
  4. YTC cannot be calculated at all unless the issuer has already announced its intention to call the bond, since yield to call requires certainty about the exact redemption date
Stock Market & Investing · Bonds & Fixed Income · Card 025/026 easy

A step-up bond is structured so that its coupon rate increases according to a predetermined schedule fixed at issuance -- for example, starting at 3% for the first two years, then rising to 4% for the next two years, and so on until maturity. Compared to a plain fixed-rate bond issued at the same time with the same maturity, what is a true statement about a step-up bond?

  1. A step-up bond's coupon increases are triggered automatically whenever market interest rates rise, making it functionally identical to a floating-rate note tied to a market reference rate
  2. A step-up bond typically starts with a lower coupon than a comparable plain fixed-rate bond, since part of the investor's compensation is deferred into the later, higher scheduled coupons -- and if the step-up bond is also callable, issuers often call it before the higher coupons take effect, which can leave investors with more call risk than an otherwise comparable plain callable bond
  3. A step-up bond's coupon schedule can be changed by the issuer at any time after issuance, provided the issuer gives bondholders at least 30 days' written notice of the change
  4. A step-up bond always has a lower duration than a plain fixed-rate bond of the same maturity, because its final coupon is the largest cash flow in both bonds' cash flow streams
Stock Market & Investing · Bonds & Fixed Income · Card 026/026 medium

An investor holds a conventional (non-inflation-linked) bond with a nominal yield to maturity of 6%. Economists estimate that expected inflation over the bond's remaining life is approximately 4%. Using the approximate Fisher relationship, which statement correctly describes the investor's expected real (inflation-adjusted) return, and what happens to that real return if actual inflation turns out higher than the 4% that was expected?

  1. The investor's real return is also approximately 6%, since the nominal yield already reflects the bond's full return regardless of what happens to prices in the broader economy
  2. The investor's real return is approximately 10%, since expected inflation must be added on top of the nominal yield to find the bond's true purchasing-power return
  3. The investor's real return is approximately 4%, since the nominal yield is simply the inflation rate plus a small fixed spread set by the issuer at auction
  4. The investor's real return is approximately 2% (roughly the 6% nominal yield minus the 4% expected inflation), and if actual inflation turns out higher than expected, the investor's realized real return falls below that 2% estimate, since the bond's fixed nominal coupon and principal do not adjust upward to compensate for the inflation surprise